Experience > Damage Analysis > Quantitative Models
Advanced quantitative models can be useful in making more reliable predictions of what will happen, or what should happen. We use these models in certain damage analyses and appraisals. We perform the required complex math, and then simplify the explanations so that a jury can comprehend their importance and veracity.
- To identify consumer preferences between having cataract eye surgery performed at cataract eye surgery centers versus hospitals, specified and estimated binary logit, nested multinomial logit, and probit economic regression models of consumer choice.
- To assess a cash flow break-even point, created and authenticated a complex statistical/mathematical financial model. Created interactive graphics that demonstrated the risks and conclusions, and allowed immediate calculation of the results with different assumptions.
- For a breach of contract case, collected and analyzed data to determine urinary catheter demand and estimated appropriate market shares in each end user class of the innovative product. Created and maintained this database and performed statistical analyses based on economic demand models for the products to estimate and forecast but-for past and future sales.
- Regression analysis to identify the fair market value of a subject agreement based on comparable transactions between the client and other customers. The regression model controlled for other factors reasonably affecting the price, including location, size, and dates of each contract.
- Analyzed sale and cost figures, and collected data on variables (diesel fuel) likely to complement products in the production of trucking services, to help estimate but-for damages using statistical regression techniques.
- Monte-Carlo analysis of historical results to predict the range of likely outcome of a slate of unreleased feature films.
- Analyzed expected total contract costs using various accepted “statistical” methods used by the U.S. government and econometric extensions of these accepted methods.
- In a breach of contract case that required the estimation of the incremental costs associated with lost volume of services in multiple areas of computer support, applied linear and non-linear regression methods to estimate lost profits resulting from selective utilization of services by customer.
- For a breach of contract case involving sale of cosmetics in Kuwait, multiple regression analyses were performed to disaggregate the economic effects of the Gulf War from alleged breaches of contract in determining but-for sales.
- Determined whether plaintiff got the benefit of a most favored nations clause by econometrically adjusting the price schedule, including volume discounts, given to another customer.
- In a case involving customer tracking software, the effects of alleged conduct were econometrically separated out from effects caused by general dot-com market problems.
- In a patent infringement case involving personal computer memory configurations and protocols, analyzed but-for scenarios based on economic demand models (by specifying and estimating linear and non-linear regression models), and performed price elasticity calculations to determine past and future lost profits.
- In valuing a patent application in a legal malpractice case, used multiple regression analyses to adjust for probability of issuance, comparable transactions, international royalty arrangements, and for prospects for US market.
- In a theft of trade secrets case, performed multiple regression analyses to examine customer selling patterns on a before and after basis and to determine what economic quantifiable effects (if any), the alleged secret information had on product sales of both parties.
- For a major television sports network, performed multiple linear and nonlinear regression analyses to determine a predicted fair market value rate per television subscriber in each unique sports geographic zone.
- In an alleged wrongful marketing case, performed a “testing population means” statistical test to test whether or not the marketing claim that a manufacturer of dentist drill parts performs faster than identified comparables.
- To assist counsel in class certification, estimated the economic damages under the assumption that the defendant had not engaged in the anti-competitive conduct. Used comparables and applied the Lerner Index to estimate output and market-price effects of the exclusionary conduct. Identified the relevant product market, calculated market shares, estimated marginal cost, and assessed the likely exercise of market power. The results were subjected to multiple econometric sensitivity analyses with regard to assumed or estimated parameters.
- In a class certification, estimated the economic damages resulting from alleged price discrimination. Applied the Cournot oligopoly model to estimate output and market-price effects of the price discrimination. Identified the relevant product market, calculated market shares, measured marginal cost, and assessed the likely joint exercise of market power. The results were subjected to multiple econometric sensitivity analyses with regard to assumed or estimated parameters.
- On behalf of a class of large pharmaceutical manufacturers accused of price discrimination and price fixing of a common contraceptive, analyzed the economics of the industry, defined the relevant market, and assessed any harm to competition and to consumers using various econometric methods.